Would you feel safe flying in a plane if the pilot made this announcement 10 minutes after takeoff?
"Good evening, passengers. Our navigational compass has kicked the bucket; however, by my hope, and my hope alone, we will remain on the correct course. Enjoy the flight."
I didn't think so. Yet, that's the equivalent of how many fundamental analysts of financial markets operate: They steer their forecasts in the dark, using NOT actual data but, rather, anticipated and wished-for events.
Take, for instance, the news items surrounding natural gas back in early September. At the time, gas prices were holding steady above the psychologically important 4.00 level. And, according to some of the usual sources, prices would continue heating up NOW on a widely expected "storm premium".... in October! See:
"Natural gas futures rallied as traders focused on storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico. We still have a lot of season to go because October is typically one of the most active months [for hurricanes]."
YET -- in the second week of September, natural gas turned down in a steady tailspin to the new contract lows we see today.
EWI's
Energy Specialty Service has been able to hold command over natural gas's course via one main navigational tool: Elliott wave analysis. On September 1, our analyst revealed a course headed up and then way down via this intraday update:
"I haven't given up on the idea that we'll see a loftier advance before the larger downtrend re-emerges. At minimum, [the next wave] should exceed the 4.154 peak."
"I'm looking for the market to ratchet lower. The 3.780 contract low is within easy reach... [The stage is set] for a sharp sell-off as wave iii unfolds."
Flash ahead, and the following chart shows exactly how
Energy Specialty Service's intraday natural gas analysis stayed ahead of the market's September descent:
Now comes the really exciting part. Right now,
Energy Specialty Service includes the most comprehensive coverage of natural gas to date: A long-term, Elliott wave perspective of the market going back to the year 1920. As you can see from the chart, natural gas prices have stayed within the upper and lower boundary lines of a long-term trendchannel for the last 91 years.
Energy Specialty Service reveals whether a breakout is upon us.