In 2004, the former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan made the following statement about currency trading in a speech before the Economic Club of New York (emphasis added):
“My experience is that exchange markets have become so efficient that virtually all relevant information is embedded almost instantaneously in exchange rates to the point that anticipating movements in major currencies is rarely possible.
"…Despite extensive efforts on the part of analysts, to my knowledge, no model projecting directional movements in exchange rates is significantly superior to tossing a coin. I am aware that of the thousands who try, some are quite successful. So are winners of coin-tossing contests.
"The seeming ability of a number of banking organizations to make consistent profits from foreign exchange trading likely derives not from their insight into future rate changes but from market making.”
Put simply, most successful forex traders are just really, really lucky, according to the Fed's ex-Chairman.
Mr. Greenspan didn’t specify which models the Fed tested before deciding that “anticipating movements in major currencies is rarely possible.” But they must have overlooked Elliott wave analysis. Here at EWI, we've been using it to making forex market forecasts for two decades. Our subscribers would attest that our analysts aren’t just “tossing a coin.”
In fact, you have a chance to test our forex forecasts for yourself -- free.
Starting on Wednesday, February 22, you get full 1-week access to EWI's most popular service for currency traders -- our forex-focused Currency Specialty Service -- FREE!
Forex FreeWeek is absolutely free to anyone with a free Club EWI user ID and password. There's no obligation to buy, and no credit card information is required.
Starting at noon Eastern time Wednesday, Feb. 22, FreeWeek gives you full access to our forex-focused Currency Specialty Service (valued at $494/month).
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