By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/7/2012 9:15:00 PM
Bonds are a stepchild of the financial news world. Stocks, forex, energy, commodities -- all those markets get their spotlight many times a day on financial TV and in other media. Bonds, not so much. Bonds are complicated. For starters, there are lots of different bonds: Treasury, sovereign, agency, municipal, corporate; high-grade and high-yield (a.k.a. junk), etc. Then you have bond prices and bond yields; when one goes up, the other one goes down… Now multiply that across a dozen different nations. There is a lot going on.
Filed Under: Bear market, debt, diversification, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, europe, European debt crisis, eurozone, Interest Rates, safe haven, trade targets, U.S. Treasuries
Category: Interest Rates
By Nico Isaac
1/12/2012 4:45:00 PM
On the financial playground, long-term bonds are generally the last picked for the winning team -- well behind equities, commodities, high-yield (junk) bonds, even the barely established emerging markets. The reason being: the amount of time it takes to actually reap the fruits of your return. BUT, as a January 5, 2012 CNBC articlereveals, the asset that supposedly nobody loves has outperformed them all.
Filed Under: conquer the crash, credit crisis, debt, debt crisis, deflation, Elliott wave, emerging markets, hyperinflation, inflation, Interest Rates, liquidity, prechter, QE2, quantitative easing, social mood, Treasury bonds, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. Treasuries
Category: U.S. Economy
By Nico Isaac
11/1/2011 2:30:00 PM
U.S. treasuries have long since been the butt of the financial joke, ridiculed for being worth little more than the paper they're issued on. The idea being: once you factor in early redemption penalties and inflation, the interest payments on long- or even short-dated securities often outweigh the capital gains. Not Anymore.
Filed Under: Robert Prechter, cash, conquer the crash, credit crisis, emerging markets, inflation, investment decisions, junk bonds, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, Treasury bills (T-bills), Treasury bonds, U.S. Treasuries
Category: Stocks
By Bob Stokes
10/12/2011 5:30:00 PM
Today's stock market has plenty of cheerleaders -- even as the rot spreads throughout the economy. Real estate and homebuilding sectors alike continue to decline in the wake of the mortgage meltdown. Municipalities continue to have growing budget problems. We're not talking about a "small town" bankruptcy, either...
Filed Under: debt crisis, economic depression, Elliott Wave Theorist, housing prices, investor psychology, municipal bonds, U.S. Treasuries
Category: U.S. Economy
Robert Prechter Explains The Fed, Part III
The world's foremost Elliott wave expert goes "behind the scenes" on the Federal Reserve
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
10/10/2011 11:30:00 AM
This is Part III, the final part of Elliott Wave International's series "Robert Prechter Explains The Fed: The world's foremost Elliott wave expert goes 'behind the scenes' on the Federal Reserve."
Filed Under: Club EWI, deflation, inflation, monetary policy, monetization, quantitative easing, Robert Prechter, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. Treasuries
Category: U.S. Economy
By Bob Stokes
10/4/2011 4:30:00 PM
Sure, there are days when the economic news is "bad" and the market closes down. And vice versa. That's why most analysts and investors link bad news with down market days, and good news with up market days. But that doesn't mean one causes the other...
Filed Under: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave Theorist, S&P 500, U.S. Treasuries
Category: U.S. Economy
Robert Prechter Explains The Fed, Part II
The world's foremost Elliott wave expert goes "behind the scenes" on the Federal Reserve
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
10/3/2011 11:30:00 AM
This is Part II of our three-part series "Robert Prechter Explains The Fed." "Let’s attempt to define what gives the dollar objective value. As we will see in the next section, the dollar is 'backed' primarily by government bonds, which are promises to pay dollars. So today, the dollar is a promise backed by a promise..."
Filed Under: Club EWI, deflation, hyperinflation, inflation, Robert Prechter, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. Treasuries
Category: U.S. Economy
Will The Fed's "Operation Twist" Turn The Economy Around?
Why is Ben Bernanke's goal lower interest rates when EWI's Short Term Update's chart shows that 10-year bond yields are already at a five-decade low?
By Nico Isaac
9/20/2011 3:30:00 PM
Get out your dancing shoes, cuz this Wednesday (September 21) the Federal Reserve Bank is widely expected to "do the twist" -- "Operation Twist,"that is. The strategy (named for the Chubby Checker tune), was first introduced in the 1960s as a tried -- and failed -- method of using monetary policy to turn (or twist) the yield curve in a favorable, i.e. economic growth-inducing, direction.
Filed Under: Bernanke, central banks, credit crisis, debt, Elliott wave, Robert Prechter, Short Term Update, Treasury bonds, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. Treasuries
Category: U.S. Economy
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
7/7/2011 2:00:00 PM
At EWI's Message Board, our subscribers and free Club EWI members ask us great questions daily. Here's a recent one: "Doesn't the U.S. Treasury's looming extension of the U.S. debt limit even higher than it is today mean more pressure on the dollar?" The question refers to a hot political issue: whether to raise the U.S. debt ceiling to yet another record high (over $14 trillion). That's a staggering figure, hence the question...
Filed Under: Elliott Wave trading, euro, forex trading, investor psychology, monetary policy, technical analysis, U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries
Category: Currencies
Living in the Post-QE World
Today's chart punctures the popular notion that stocks must fall if bond yields were to rise, post-QE2
By Nico Isaac
6/29/2011 11:30:00 AM
The countdown to a post-QE financial world is over in t-minus 10, 9, 8... Today, June 30 marks the end of the U.S. Federal Reserve's massive "quantitative easing" program. So the question is: Withe end-of-QE days be a world in which only stock-roaches and Twinkies survive? All jokes aside, many mainstream experts say life after the Fed's historic stimulus campaign will be markedly different for the stock and bond markets.
Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), market forecasts, Nasdaq Composite, QE2, quantitative easing, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, safe haven, stock indexes, Treasury bills (T-bills), U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. Treasuries
Category: Stocks
By Jason Farkas
6/21/2011 2:15:00 PM
Sovereign debt is making the headlines these days, and here is a new way to look at the different risk levels of bonds -- the Debt Parabola, a.k.a. Debt Man's Curve.
Filed Under: emerging markets, eurozone, Greek debt, municipal bonds, pension funds, Robert Prechter, Sovereign Debt, subprime lending, Treasury bills (T-bills), U.S. Treasuries
Category: U.S. Economy
Follow 40+ Global Markets, With One Global Perspective
With more than 60 charts on more than 100 pages, EWI's Global Market Perspective is the most comprehensive source of Elliott wave analysis you'll ever find
By Editorial Staff
6/9/2011 3:30:00 PM
In a global market environment that can be both treacherous and rewarding – it’s vital to have an ally on your journey. That’s where Global Market Perspective comes in...
Filed Under: CAC40, Chinese markets, DAX, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, emerging markets, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, eurozone, FTSE, gold futures, Greek debt, Japanese yen, market forecasts, Nasdaq Composite, Nikkei, S&P 500, Shanghai Composite Index, silver, soverign debt crisis, stock indexes, Swiss franc, technical analysis, Treasury bills (T-bills), U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries, volatility, yuan
Category: Global Markets
By Nico Isaac
6/6/2011 10:45:00 AM
True or False: The U.S. Federal Reserves quantitative easing (QE) policy has been to bond yields what a plastic lid is to a trick snake can. Once you open the lid, it's -- "POP!" -- and the toy snakes spring up and out? According to many mainstream financial experts, the answer to that question is a clear and definitive true.
Filed Under: bailouts, QE2, quantitative easing, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. Treasuries
Category: U.S. Economy
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/11/2011 1:30:00 PM
You may have heard or read talk in the media about what will happen to the U.S. dollar if China and Japan reduce their U.S. Treasury purchases, and/or dump their vast portfolios of U.S. bonds. This topic makes for a fascinating discussion, but they rarely show you a chart. Which is too bad...
Filed Under: forex trading, fundamental analysis, Robert Prechter, Robert Prechter, safe haven, Treasury bills (T-bills), Treasury bonds, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. Treasuries
Category: Currencies
Current Echoes of the Old Mania
EWI's May Financial Forecast reveals whether these familiar notes are the sounds of a new bull market
By Nico Isaac
5/11/2011 12:15:00 PM
In the decade leading to the end of the Great Asset Mania in 2007, a rising tide of credit expansion drove many major financial market trends in remarkable harmony. Yet in 2009 this correlation seemed to diverge: stocks, precious metals, and oil moved contra-cyclically. But today, the trend in those markets is aligned once again.
Filed Under: bull market, credit crisis, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), gold futures, mania, market forecasts, mutual funds, New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), silver, U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries, unemployment, Wall Street
Category: Stocks
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/4/2011 5:30:00 PM
Please read these financial news headlines and then take a guess as to when they were published...
Filed Under: bull market, buy and hold, credit crisis, Elliott wave, housing prices, International Monetary Fund (IMF), nonfarm payrolls, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. Treasuries, unemployment
Category: Stocks
What's Behind The Recent Bond Market Rally?
You didn't have to wait for "unrest in Libya" to anticipate U.S. Treasury bonds' falling yields and rising prices.
By Nico Isaac
2/28/2011 4:45:00 PM
Starting in early February, the long-dated securities sector was undergoing its longest slump since 2008. The 10-year Treasury note yield had soared 130 basis points from its October trough to hit a nine-and-a-half month high, while prices (which move opposite yields) were in losing streak central. And, according to the usual suspects, the big "fundamental" arrow in bond prices would continue to point DOWN.
Filed Under: Daily Sentiment Index (DSI), fundamental analysis, Treasury bonds, U.S. Treasuries
Category: Interest Rates
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/28/2010 3:15:00 PM
"There is no group more subjective than conventional analysts, who look at the same 'fundamental' news event a war, interest rates, P/E ratio, GDP, economic policy, the Fed’s monetary policy, you name it and come up with countless opposing conclusions. They generally don’t even bother to study the data." (EWI president Robert Prechter.) You need objective tools to make objective forecasts. So, we put together a unique resource for you: a free 118-page Independent Investor eBook, where you see dozens of examples and charts that show what really creates market trends.
Filed Under: Campaign for Independent Thinking, Chinese markets, diversification, earnings, Elliott Wave Principle, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), gross domestic product (GDP), gold futures, hyperinflation, inflation, monetary policy, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, supply and demand, Treasury bills (T-bills), U.S. Treasuries, Treasury bills (T-bills), Treasury bonds
Category: Gold and Silver
By Nico Isaac
12/21/2010 5:15:00 PM
TREASURIES -- the very name conveys a thing that is secure, protected, and will appreciate over time. Otherwise, it'd be called something like "TRASHeries" or "Mattress Stuffers." Then, there's the official seal of the US Department of Treasury: its image of a scale and a key symbolize "balance" and "trust." And, finally, there's the mainstream economic experts who have it on good authority that long-term bonds increase in value during financial instability and uncertainty.
Filed Under: Campaign for Independent Thinking, conquer the crash, junk bonds, municipal bonds, Robert Prechter, U.S. Treasuries, Treasury bonds
Category: Interest Rates
By Debbie Iseler
12/8/2010 3:30:00 PM
...I asked what kind of bonds they got into. “High-yield bond funds,” was the answer. What kind of bonds are these funds invested in? To this question I got blank stares. How long do you plan on staying in these funds? This got the reply I was afraid I'd hear: “Why would we get out when they are so much safer than stocks?” That's when my new interest in these once boring investments turned to fear -- for my friends.
Filed Under: junk bonds, municipal bonds, mutual funds, personal finance, Robert Prechter, U.S. Treasuries, Treasury bonds
Category: Interest Rates