Strange Recovery
Is it strange in here, or is it just...strange?
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/1/2012 4:00:00 PM
Something doesn't feel right. Look at this:
Filed Under: Bob Prechter, consumer confidence, earnings, Elliott wave, home sales, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, social mood, unemployment
Category: U.S. Economy
By Bob Stokes
4/17/2012 3:30:00 PM
It's earnings season. And like they do every quarter, stock market observers want the answer to the ritual question: Will earnings drive stock prices higher or lower? The premise that earnings drive stock prices is so ingrained that it's not a question of whether earnings steer stock prices, but how will earnings steer the indexes. Here's what you need to know...
Filed Under: earnings, Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, market forecasts, S&P 500, stock indexes
Category: Stocks
By Bob Stokes
4/12/2012 5:00:00 PM
Do price/earnings ratios (or any other measure of value) really tell us why stocks rise or fall? Read what Robert Prechter wrote in the...
Filed Under: earnings, Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, investment strategy, Robert Prechter, S&P 500
Category: Stocks
Earnings: A Never-Ending Wild Goose Chase
"Projected earnings are the single worst indicator to use in an attempt to forecast markets" -- EWI's Short Term Update
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/11/2012 3:00:00 PM
Please see if you can guess when this quote was published: ... If you guessed that this is today's quote -- after all, we are in the midst of another earning season -- good guess, but no.
Filed Under: diversification, earnings, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, stock market cycles, technical analysis, technical indicators
Category: Stocks
By Nico Isaac
1/5/2012 10:30:00 PM
On January 4, I began a three-part series titled "Famous Stock Market Myths Exposed." The first piece tried to dispelled the widely held notions of the stock market's consistent seasonal biases. Today, let's look at another backbone of mainstream economic thought: that earnings are the driver of stock market trends.
Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), earnings, Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500
Category: Stocks
By Bob Stokes
12/16/2011 5:45:00 PM
Investment outlooks are usually based on fundamentals. A bullish outlook on stocks, for example, is sure to quote investment professionals who cite earnings or expected earnings. But do earnings drive stock prices? Take a look at the chart...
Filed Under: earnings, market forecasts, personal finance, Robert Prechter, S&P 500
Category: Stocks
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/10/2011 5:15:00 PM
You may have seen a TV ad where "traders" describe their strategies, and one says, "I trade on fundamentals." That sounds very reassuring -- except, which “fundamental” factor trumps the other? Which one carries more weight in your forecast? Your guess is as good (or bad) as anybody’s. Your alternative is technical analysis...
Filed Under: earnings, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Education, Elliott Wave trading, europe, technical analysis, technical indicators, trading lessons
Category: Stocks
Earnings: Stock Market's Brightest False Beacon
"Earnings estimators are too pessimistic at bottoms and too optimistic at tops," explains EWI's president Robert Prechter
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
10/24/2011 3:15:00 PM
Four times a year, investors and Wall Street watch the quarterly corporate earnings reports, trying to anticipate the trend in stocks. Another earnings season is upon us right now -- so read this excerpt and see these two charts...
Filed Under: banks, Club EWI, diversification, double dip, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), earnings, economic depression, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Theorist, Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500
Category: Stocks
By Susan C. Walker
7/15/2011 3:15:00 PM
This insightful and well-crafted chart, showing year-end stock market valuations, is a case in point of how one picture shows more than many words can tell.
Filed Under: Robert Prechter, earnings, stock indexes, Treasury bills (T-bills)
Category: Classic Prechter
Earnings Data: Benchmark in Sheep's Clothing
A stunning chart from Bob Prechter's April Theorist shows how earnings data is not a benchmark at all
By Nico Isaac
5/16/2011 6:00:00 PM
In the rough seas of financial forecasting, the mainstream "captains" have always relied on certain time-honored tools for navigation: Breaking news, GDP figures, political scandals, weather patterns, and so on. But of all the measurements, there is one gauge widely considered to be the "North Star" of financial prognostication -- that ever-fixed mark in the economic sky that always points to the "true" future performance of major stock averages. And that gauge is earnings.
Filed Under: Robert Prechter, earnings, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott Wave Theorist, gross domestic product (GDP), Robert Prechter, unemployment
Category: Stocks
Stocks Rally On the News of Bin Laden's Death, You Say? It's Not That Simple
Interest rates, oil prices, trade balances, corporate earnings and GDP: None of them seem to be important, or even relevant, to explaining stock price changes
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/2/2011 5:30:00 PM
MarketWatch.com ran an interesting story on May 2 that quoted from a research paper which found "little evidence that non-economics events have a big effect on the stock market." Here at EWI, we go one step further and say the following: Economic events have little impact on the stock market, too. Don't believe us? See this chart.
Filed Under: Campaign for Independent Thinking, deficit, earnings, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Principle, gross domestic product (GDP), Robert Prechter, Robert Prechter, S&P 500
Category: Stocks
Watch Earnings Reports? Then See This Chart
"Earnings estimators are too pessimistic at bottoms and too optimistic at tops," writes Robert Prechter
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/26/2011 3:30:00 PM
Four times a year, investors and Wall Street watch the quarterly corporate earnings reports, trying to anticipate the trend in stocks. Another earnings season is upon us right now -- so read this excerpt from our free Club EWI report, "Market Myths Exposed."
Filed Under: diversification, earnings, Elliott wave, Nasdaq Composite, New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Robert Prechter, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, stock indexes
Category: Stocks
By Debbie Iseler
4/1/2011 11:15:00 AM
Suppose you were to be guaranteed that corporate earnings would rise strongly for the next six quarters straight. Reports of such improvement would constitute one powerful "information flow." So, should you buy stocks?
Filed Under: Campaign for Independent Thinking, earnings, Elliott Wave Theorist, fundamental analysis, Robert Prechter
Category: Stocks
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/23/2011 9:30:00 AM
During hyperinflation, interest rates typically rise to double digits per month. Inflationists find it difficult to reconcile the Fed’s massive balance sheet growth since August 2008 with short term rates at zero. But deflationists understand why investors are willing to hold government paper at such low returns...
Filed Under: Ben Bernanke, Robert Prechter, credit crisis, crude oil, deflation, earnings, Elliott Wave Theorist, gold futures, hyperinflation, inflation, liquidity, M3 money supply, market manipulation, monetary policy, monetization, Robert Prechter, quantitative easing, stimulus package, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)
Category: U.S. Economy
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/28/2011 3:45:00 PM
The belief that the GDP and other economic measures drive stock market trends is alive and well. Yet the reality is that "stocks lead the economy, normally by months." EWI's president Robert Prechter has studied this subject in depth. Here's an excerpt from his June 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist, written shortly before the DJIA went into the most violent part of the 2007-2009 crash.
Filed Under: Ben Bernanke, bull market, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), earnings, gross domestic product (GDP), Robert Prechter, social mood, Wall Street
Category: U.S. Economy
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/15/2011 9:30:00 PM
At EWI's Message Board, we receive great questions from subscribers and free Club EWI members daily. Here's one that deserves an expanded answer: "Can you please explain what you mean by the phrase, 'The news doesn't make the market, rather the market makes the news'?" This is a radically different concept than the conventional assumptions about how the financial world works. EWI's president Robert Prechter pioneered the very idea that the news is irrelevant to markets, and has written extensively about it; he calls it "socionomics." Here's an essay by Prechter on the topic.
Filed Under: bull market, buy and hold, Campaign for Independent Thinking, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), earnings, Elliott Wave Principle, Nasdaq Composite, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, social mood, socionomics, trading lessons
Category: Stocks
Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths: Conclusion
Interest rates, oil prices, trade balance, earnings, GDP, wars, terrorist attacks, inflation, monetary policy, fiscal policy, etc. -- NONE have a reliable effect on the stock market
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/10/2011 12:30:00 PM
This is the conclusion of the series "Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths," where EWI president explains why traditional financial models failed in 2007-2009 -- and why they are doomed to fail again (and again). Missed this important series? Start with Part I now.
Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Ben Bernanke, bull market, crude oil, deficit, earnings, economic depression, great depression, inflation, market crash, monetary policy, terrorist attacks, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), unemployment
Category: Stocks
Earnings Drive Stock Prices? See This Chart Before You Answer
A free Club EWI report exposes the TEN most misleading myths of Wall Street, including this one: "Earnings drive the stock market."
By Nico Isaac
1/6/2011 3:45:00 PM
Since the time of buttonwood trees, Wall Street has had its own version of the Ten Commandments -- the cornerstone principles of conventional economic wisdom. The first of these writ-in-stone notions is the widespread belief that earnings drive the stock market. In reality, though, much of this belief is based on faith, not facts. While earnings may play a role in the price of an individual stock, the market as a whole marches to a different drummer.
Filed Under: earnings, Elliott Wave Principle, S&P 500, Wall Street
Category: U.S. Economy
Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths, Part XI
The world's foremost Elliott wave practitioner tests myth #10: "Central banks and government policies control the markets” -- and brings you yet another surprising conclusion
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/6/2011 11:30:00 AM
This is Part XI of the series "Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths," where EWI president tests myth #10: "Central banks and government policies control the markets” -- and brings you yet another surprising conclusion.
Filed Under: bailouts, Ben Bernanke, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), earnings, Elliott Wave Principle, Fannie Mae, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), Freddie Mac, inflation, investor psychology, market manipulation, monetary policy, S&P 500
Category: Stocks
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/28/2010 3:15:00 PM
"There is no group more subjective than conventional analysts, who look at the same 'fundamental' news event a war, interest rates, P/E ratio, GDP, economic policy, the Fed’s monetary policy, you name it and come up with countless opposing conclusions. They generally don’t even bother to study the data." (EWI president Robert Prechter.) You need objective tools to make objective forecasts. So, we put together a unique resource for you: a free 118-page Independent Investor eBook, where you see dozens of examples and charts that show what really creates market trends.
Filed Under: Campaign for Independent Thinking, Chinese markets, diversification, earnings, Elliott Wave Principle, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), gross domestic product (GDP), gold futures, hyperinflation, inflation, monetary policy, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, supply and demand, Treasury bills (T-bills), U.S. Treasuries, Treasury bills (T-bills), Treasury bonds
Category: Gold and Silver